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Bank of Canada – Concern over service price inflation

 

The Canadian jobs market continues to remain robust. Employment rose by 41,400 in April, while the unemployment rate held at 5.0% for the fifth consecutive month. Part-time jobs accounted for all of the monthly gains, as full-time employment fell (-6,200).  Average hourly wages came in at 5.2% year-over-year, showing some moderation but still too hot for the Bank of Canada. 

Population continued to expand, with the 15+ demographic growing nearly 70,000 per month in 2023. This rapidly growing population is pushing up monthly jobs numbers. The Bank has highlighted the population changes in its policy discussion. When reading the employment number, headline job growth is likely less important than the unemployment rate and wages to understand labour market tightness.

The Bank of Canada is concerned about the stickiness of service price inflation. This is likely the biggest challenge in getting inflation down to 2%. The Bank has highlighted three things it sees as necessary to slow service price inflation:

  • The labour market needs to rebalance, and wage growth needs to moderate.
  • Businesses need to slow the pace and size of their price increases.
  • Inflation expectations need to come down—too many people still believe inflation will be higher than forecasts indicate over the next two years.

These factors will be a major determinant of whether the Bank of Canada will continue to sit on the sidelines, or if it feels it needs to do more to get inflation closer to the 2% target.

 


Independent Opinion

The views and opinions expressed in this publication are solely and independently those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of any person or organization in any way affiliated with the author including, without limitation, any current or past employers of the author. While reasonable effort was taken to ensure the information and analysis in this publication is accurate, it has been prepared solely for general informational purposes. Any opinions, projections, or forward-looking statements expressed herein are solely those of the author. There are no warranties or representations being provided with respect to the accuracy and completeness of the content in this publication. Nothing in this publication should be construed as providing professional advice including investment advice on the matters discussed. The author does not assume any liability arising from any form of reliance on this publication. Readers are cautioned to always seek independent professional advice from a qualified professional before making any investment decisions.

 

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